A sheltered e-bike seems perfect for the winters where I live but the ones I see available start at $10,000 which seems very steep given they are categorized as bikes.
To not bury the lede, I don’t think it’s likely that velomobiles/full-fairing bikes/ebikes will ever become established as a notable fraction of the micro mobility segment.
As for why I think this, it mostly is down to what such bikes can do which cannot be done by other, more common bikes. Essentially, I think the market is really narrow for velomobiles, with no reason to expect it to grow substantially in future.
A velomobile is a full-faired bicycle, such that it has the lowest aerodynamic penalty of any human-powered transport, capable of achieving exceptional speed. While the focus might be on the fairing to provide protection from the elements, I think the aero profile is the strength and the sheltering merely an ancillary benefit.
Today’s common bikes have their place, and ebikes expand upon that to cover more destinations in the same time, or the same places faster. Speed does open riding opportunities, depending on how comfortable you are mixing with higher-speed auto traffic on busier, faster roads. So it sounds like the velomobile should slot in perfectly to further expand the space where ebikes make sense today.
But we’re reaching some limits with speed. A class 3 ebike can do 45 kph (28 mph), which in many places statewide and definitely in Europe, that’s roughly the most common city/town speed limit. Going faster necessarily entails moving up to arterial roads or country roads. But there’s nothing beyond that: bikes of all types are typically prohibited on a freeway/motorway. So the extra speed benefit of a velomobile is only realized for select road types which often have destinations far between or are generally uncomfortable for cycling outright. While some people will endeavor to make these journeys, it’s not as common than cycling around town or to the grocery store. Thus there’s a much narrower market for more speed beyond an ebike.
For sheltering, the adage of “there’s no bad weather but bad gear” comes to mind. Cyclists from Hawaii to Sweden have found ways to adapt to their changing weather conditions, finding it more efficient to protect the rider than protecting the whole bike+rider. The velomobile must then compete against the affordability of mittens, a balaclava, rain-shedding pants, and water-proof boots. And all those clothing accessories are useful while off the bike. The economics don’t favor the velomobile here either.
Will there be people who still choose the velomobile for other reasons? Absolutely! And I encourage it, since I want to see a live one on the roads. But I cannot envision a future where the velomobile grows beyond the realm of intrigue and novelty, because its micromobility competition is fierce.
…are you a marketing analyst or something? Your analysis was really well done, imho.
You’re too kind with your remarks, thanks!
I just think about bikes a lot. One thing that stops me from frivolously buying more bikes is to contemplate what their strengths are, since my personal goal is to have the minimum number of bikes to cover the most number of situations. Sometimes I think about bikes for other people, so it then becomes a challenge to find them a bike which suits their needs, without falling into the similar trap of “the does-everything car”, aka jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none.
Without this process of analysis, it’s likely I’d own a penny-farthing haha
Your analysis skills are strong. So strong that they overcome your impulse to buy buy buy.
I’ve never tried (or really even looked at?) a velomobile but there has to be disadvantages right? Extra weight, more difficult to mount / dismount, clunkier for parking, unsightly scratches, and simply the lack of wind in your hair…
The weather tends towards inclement where I am, but the thing is it’s rarely so bad that a velomobile would really be warranted. It usually only rains for a few minutes at a time.
A velomobile or a recumbent tadpole is much more comfortable and safer. You can go much faster and/or more relaxed and you can transport more weight to go shopping. It’s the most energy efficient personal transport.
The only insurmountable downside is that upright bicycles are more agile in city traffic, and that a veomobile / tadpole requires more space at home.
But once they are cheaper and more geared for practical use instead of enthusiast speed machines, they have the potential to allow to mostly replace cars. At least if we change how we live and work to a less insane way.
As for why I think this, it mostly is down to what such bikes can do which cannot be done by other, more common bikes.
Velomobiles are faster, the most energy efficient transport currently technologically possible. They are safer because you are protected by a shell. They are more comfortable because of a recumbent and more relaxed riding position.
Inside city traffic an upright bike is more agile and it requires less space at home. But those are I think the only insurmountable downsides of a velomobile.
But we’re reaching some limits with speed. A class 3 ebike can do 45 kph (28 mph)
You need insurance, regulation make it much harder / more expensive to get a new model to market, you cannot use bicycle lanes and you are not allowed to park on sideways. And they are less comfortable than recumbent bikes. And their payload is limited because of high center of gravity.
The ideal would of course be more lax regulations so you can have e-velomobiles or velocars that can go up to 50kmh.
Essentially, I think the market is really narrow for velomobiles, with no reason to expect it to grow substantially in future.
I think outside of pure micromobility in dense city traffic you are wrong here. Velomobiles do need to evolve to something more practical and away from the enthusiast speed machines (more like the frikkar podbike) and the prices and regulations and infrastructure has to be improved. But to categorically reject them because “45 kmh mopeds exist” is a disservice.
No. We had a guy bring one on a fun group ride (City sponsored during Bike Month) and it was a bit of a PITA. Not really worth any of the advantages, especially for the size/weight/cost.
Winter bike riding has some challenges, but 99% of them can be easily overcome.
I see the world rapidly realizing it doesn’t need to pedal its bikes anymore. I can’t see it adding pedals to things that have already had them removed…
They can go anywhere a bike can and can carry a decent amount of cargo, whereas NEVs are limited to only roads with a speed limit of 30 mph or less. That’s my thinking anyway.
It’s a fair point that there are different laws in different countries (or states) when it comes to PEV’s and those could affect what people buy. But I still don’t see it. Bikes have been around for a very long time, as has bad weather. If covered bikes were going to be a thing, they would be already.
I can’t see it adding pedals to things that have already had them removed…
Unless it’s to satisfy antiquated laws that require pedals for something to be considered an “e-bike”
Pedal assist done right with torque sensing is actually more fun than just a gas pedal. I believe there is even some science on that. It makes you feel like superman I think. And that is besides the health benefits.
Maybe some day but I feel like there are just too many drawbacks including price and practical stuff like taking up a crazy amount of space on a rack, dealing with wind, getting through a crowd, etc.
Maybe one day in some form, but I think it’s more likely they’ll remain a niche thing just because of the cost and the fact that they’re kind of impractical compared to a bike. It would be nice to have a sheltered cockpit I guess but that comes with a lot of extra weight, cost, and reduced mobility (seems like wind could be a problem too).
Side wind is not a problem because they have more stability with 3 or 4 wheels and they are lower to the ground. Inside city traffic an upright is more agile, but for other areas the price coud come down and designs could become more practical (e.g. easier entry, more payload)
