So in this URL, you can see the 2020 lines for how North Carolina voted. If that’s total counted votes after it was all over, then this page will be not so useful until all the 2024 votes are counted.
However, if it ONLY shows early/mail-in votes, then we’re in trouble. On almost every state I click the democrats have NOT reached their 2020 numbers, while the republicans are close to their 2020 numbers. In some cases surpassing 2020 numbers slightly.
The context relies heavily on what those 2020 ticks are measuring. Total votes? Or only Early/Mail-in votes?
Yes, like a mail in vote that arrived on election day. It wouldn’t be included in today’s “early voting” numbers, but it would have been included in the total number of mail in votes in 2020 that I’m comparing it too. But don’t expect a big change.
The 2020 numbers might be deceiving and impossible to compare to. Mail in voting was heavily expanded, which skewed Democrat, so early voting results in 2020 skewed Democrat. Then election day skewed more Republican than normal too. It’s not going to follow that exact pattern again.